The Scarlets’ Euro situation explained… What needs to happen for them to reach the knockouts and a doomsday scenario

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When the Scarlets headed to The Rec, some had written off their chances and, as a consequence, their European Champions Cup hopes.

They were without Steff Evans, Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny McNicholl to name a few, but that did little to slow them down against Bath.

Wayne Pivac’s men romped to a 17-35 win but what has that done to Pool Five?

They currently top the Pool on 17 points, with Toulon on 13 points and facing Treviso on Sunday.

Here’s the lowdown…

If Toulon beat Benetton

It sets up a winner takes all clash at Parc y Scarlets next Saturday at 5:30pm.

If the French big-spenders get a bonus point against the Italians at the Stade Felix Mayol this Sunday, they’ll head into the final weekend one point ahead of the Welsh side.

Should Toulon win without a bonus point, both teams will be level on points, setting up a thrilling finale in Llanelli next weekend.

If Toulon lose to Benetton

Beyond the realms of reasonable thinking? Perhaps not.

Benetton gave Toulon an almighty scare in the second round, when it took a Francois Trinh-Duc penalty with the last kick of the game to scrape a 30-29 victory.

That said, it’s still a long shot.

Anyway, should Toulon not win against Benetton then a victory for them at Parc y Scarlets would be enough.

A bonus point victory would see them top the group by a point and a win without a bonus point would see them draw level with the Scarlets on 17 points.

They’d go through as winners on the head-to-head having already beaten the Welsh side at the Stade Felix Mayol.

If Toulon claim a losing bonus point in Treviso, simply beating the Scarlets – without a bonus point – would enough to see them top the group on 18 points.

Mathieu Bastaraeaud and Ken Owens collide

Can the Scarlets lose to Toulon and still qualify?

Let’s assume for a moment that the Scarlets finish second in Pool Five.

It doesn’t mean their hopes of reaching the quarter-finals are over as the best three runners up will go through to the knockout stages.

The Scarlets currently have 17 points, which is four ahead of the three current best placed second teams – Ulster, Ospreys and Montpellier.

With almost a full round of matches yet to be played, this could all change but currently the chasing pack need five points to catch Pivac’s men.

On the final weekend, Montpellier will have already played and the Ospreys’ match will be nearly over by the time the Scarlets kick off.

They should have a very good idea of what their situation is before they get underway.

Scarlets head coach Wayne Pivac

What’s the doomsday scenario?

Okay, so the Scarlets get thumped by Toulon without even picking up a losing bonus point, leaving them stranded on 17 points.

It means they could be caught by all of the current second placed sides in the other pools.

Ulster, Ospreys and Montpellier would only need five points from their next two games to go beyond the Scarlets – Racing would need six.

Can Bath still have a say?

Bath still have a genuine shot at finishing second.

Should they win with a bonus point against Benetton, they’ll go to 18 points.

Whether that’ll be enough to see them go through as a best-placed runner up would remain to be seen, but it would mean they’d leapfrog the Scarlets if the Welsh side get nothing against Toulon next week.



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