SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Inglis Classic Day at Warwick Farm on Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True position.
BEST EACH-WAY: DANISH TWIST (Race 7, No. 3)
BEST VALUE: KHALAMA (Race 9, No. 10)
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
R1 (12.45pm): LONHRO PLATE (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Tricky race. Osorno didn’t have a lot of luck first-up and I just wish this was 1200m or 1300m. He looks to be crying out for more ground, but he might just have the better form line all the same. It’s hard to go past the Gimcrack Stakes winner in Satin Slipper on paper, although I think the Sydney fillies might be a bit behind the Sydney colts in general terms, and she doesn’t map that well. Her two trials have been fine and she just needs to find a spot with cover early to be running on. Oxford Tycoon beat home Satin Slipper in a recent trial, although was under a little bit more pressure in doing so. She should get a good run here and be presented late. I like the way Tell Me has trialled and she could be the sleeper here. She probably gets back but watch for her late. Partners has also shown a bit at the trials, while Phoneme was three-wide no cover on debut at Moonee Valley and can improve as well.
SPEED MAP: Expect Make ‘Em Cry to lead with Sandbar also up there. Burbank could also push forward along with a few other runners.
DID YOU KNOW: Osorno (57.24) clocked an overall time 0.84s quicker than Satin Slipper (58.08s) when they contested the Breeders’ Plate and Gimcrack Stakes on the same day at Randwick last spring.
BETTING STRATEGY: Toughest race of the day where late betting could tell the story! OSORNO on top, but late betting could be key.
R2 (1.25pm): DAVALI THOROUGHBREDS CUP (2400m)
OVERVIEW: Always tricky these staying races but Chatelard might be the one on the way up. He hasn’t raced beyond 2000m but he is a tough on-pacer and the extra trip looks as if it will suit. Brenton Avdulla goes aboard and he will really suit this horse. Zourkhan is another horse that looks like he is looking for the extra trip and he has won over 2800m in the past. Xebec loomed and knocked up over 2000m last time out and he has won at 2400m. The only query is whether he is one run short for this trip. Gamblestown is on the quick back up and raced as if the 2400m would suit last weekend. He still needs to do it though. Beijing Board won well last start and the luckless The Gavel has come out of that race and won since.
SPEED MAP: Good speed here with Shalmaneser, Multitude, Beijing Board and Great Glen all up there. Chatelard and Zourkhan won’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Gamblestown (812 days), Shalmaneser (623) and Xebec (535) all haven’t won for some time.
BETTING STRATEGY: CHATELARD to win.
PORTELLI: REIGN STILL NEEDS SLICE OF LUCK
MEDIA SAVVY: BAKER THE MODERN TRAINER
R3 (2pm): INGLIS SPRINT (1100m)
OVERVIEW: The scratching of Nature Strip means this now looks She Will Reign’s race to lose. It’s a shame because it would have been one great clash if Nature Strip was fully fit and at the top of his game. I think he could have gone very close. She Will Reign is so well weighted under the set weights and she should make a winning return on her home track. Limbo Soul and Acqume look next best but this is all about last year’s Golden Slipper winner.
SPEED MAP: She Will Reign should have a bit of speed fresh but I don’t know if she will lead. Shudabeen and Limbo Soul both have speed but Limbo Soul was ridden quiet in two recent trials. Hard race to map.
DID YOU KNOW: She Will Reign is at least 35 benchmark points above every other horse in the race but will carry just 54kg.
BETTING STRATEGY: SHE WILL REIGN on top, but she is at a good thing’s price as well. Barrier one is not ideal as I doubt she leads.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: She Will Reign $1.70-$1.55-$1.15 ($5,000 @ $1.70, $500 @ $1.70 TWICE, $300 @ $1.70, $286 @ $1.70, $250 @ $1.70), Za Zi Ba $51-$41
R4 (2.35pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Very open Highway race with many of these getting ready for their respective Country Championships Qualifiers. El Mo just found the 1100m a bit short last start and the extra 100m helps. I could make a case for a couple at big odds here in Under The Thumb and Call Me Brad. The former is flying in benchmark races and he made up a stack of ground last start at Canterbury on a day where it was very hard to make up ground. Call Me Brad only won at Gunnedah last start but he did so in good figures and his race was run some .76s and 1.72s quicker than the other 1200m races on the same day. Try A Lil Harder is airborne and she can go on with the job here. Volpe, Makfi Lass and My Tagoson are all capable if they overdo it up front but all three are better over further.
SPEED MAP: Speed should be genuine here with Leica Lass, Call Me Brad and Try A Lil Harder all up there.
DID YOU KNOW: El Mo only has a rating of 55 and you would think he would need to win this to make the Goulburn Country Championships Qualifier heat later this month.
BETTING STRATEGY: Boxed quinella 6,12,14,16.
R5 (3.10pm): INGLIS CLASSIC (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty open race with a number of form lines to consider. Sanctimonious probably has the best form lines and the map is the concern for him. Do I want to take $3 with that in mind? No, but he is on top. Pembroke Castle just peaked on the run first-up and he looked like he was going to be right in it at the 300m and the sectionals back that up. Chris Waller will have him peaking on the day. I thought Momentum Factor’s two trials were solid over an unsuitable trip and most of his siblings have got over a bit further. He will get well back but he can run on OK. Ballistica has trialled well albeit in pretty slow time, while I respect the Queenslander Snicki Minaj but have a slight query over what she beat at Doomben the other day as well as her running 1200m.
SPEED MAP: Snicki Minaj looks your leader but Sunfighter, potentially Ta Chanson and Pembroke Castle can be up there. Speed should be solid.
DID YOU KNOW: Ballista’s trial win at Gosford was 1.82s slower than the 2YO trials either side of her heat on January 31.
BETTING STRATEGY: SANCTIMONIOUS on top but I’m not diving in at the price. MOMENTUM FACTOR has rough place claims, too.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sanctimonious $3.50-$3 ($1,500 @ $3.50, $400 @ $3.20), Ballistica $4.60-$4.20- $4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $1,500 @ $4.40, $250 @ $4.20)
R6 (3.45pm): ESKIMO PRINCE STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Solid edition of the Eskimo Prince and I have to stick with Siege Of Quebec even though I concede he is probably looking for further now. He is just a winner and I know his first-up win only looked fair but the sectional breakdown showed it was much stronger than it was. Kementari has trialled very well but it must be put into context and he cruised past a horse in the trial that has had one start and been beaten two lengths in a maiden. He has only had the one public shortcourse trial in the lead-up to this and he needed the run first-up last preparation. He can win but I would want to see him in the yard first and see whether he is a firmer or drifter late. Single Bullet is finding it hard to win but he was five weeks between runs last start and had 61kg. He gets the blinkers on here, a 2kg swing in the weights on Siege Of Quebec and will be racing on his home track. Brave Song also has claims but may need to go to another level to win this.
SPEED MAP: Another Sin, Siege Of Quebec and Lord Cecil should be up there. Single Bullet and Kementari shouldn’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Siege Of Quebec still clocked the quickest last 600m (33.6s) and last 400m (22.08s) splits of the day at Rosehill on January 27 despite the win just looking fair.
BETTING STRATEGY: SIEGE OF QUEBEC on top but late betting on KEMENTARI is crucial here after the mounting yard parade. Will he need the run or is he ready to go after one shortcourse trial? Late betting should tell the story and that intel could be vital here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kementari $4-$3.20 ($800 @ $3.70, $2,000 @ $3.40)
R7 (4.25pm): BREEDERS CLASSIC (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I know she doesn’t win out of turn but I think Danish Twist is going to go very close with even luck from the inside draw here. Go watch her last three first-up runs if you have five minutes. She was beaten a whisker in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes against the boys first-up three preps back, she was beaten 1.2 lengths in this race last February where she was beaten ¾ of a length behind Egyptian Symbol in a race where she started favourite and just got too far back. Then first-up last prep she ran seventh in the Sheraco and was beaten ¾ of a length behind Bonny O’Reilly but ran into traffic jam after traffic jam and should have almost won the race. Barrier one is ideal because she will get a smother and she just needs luck on the turn. Egyptian Symbol looks the danger and I thought she had her chance on the Gold Coast but she was solid all the same. Bonny O’Reilly has a great fresh record and it just depends how much work she has to do early. Memes and Prompt Response next best.
SPEED MAP: Memes should take it up with Bonny O’Reilly coming over early. Prompt Response and Tswalu should kick up a touch to at least ensure an even tempo.
DID YOU KNOW: Memes’ saddle slipped on jumping in the Expressway last weekend and Rachel King told stewards the mare did not stretch out comfortably due to the positioning of the saddle.
BETTING STRATEGY: I think DANISH TWIST is a tremendous each-way bet at $13. My main play of the day.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Egyptian Symbol $3.60-$3.30 ($1,000 @ $3.60), Bonny O’Reilly $4.60-$3.80
R8 (5.05pm): BOWNESS STUD MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a nice race for Show A Star who burnt the candle at both ends to score over 1500m second-up at Rosehill. The extra 100m shouldn’t bother him. Testashadow was beaten just 1½ lengths in a Villiers late last year and that’s very good form for a race like this. Nat King Cu loves Warwick Farm and his chances probably depend on how much pressure he gets up on speed. Supply And Demand is capable but his last few runs have just been a bit below par. More To Gain is capable but may need a run.
SPEED MAP: Coolring will probably want the front again with Nat King Cu kicking up. Supply And Demand won’t be far away. Speed should be genuine.
DID YOU KNOW: Coolring hasn’t won for 644 days.
BETTING STRATEGY: Boxed quinella 2,4,8.
R9 (5.45pm): SLEDMERE STUD DASH (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Stack of speed in the last and I think a horse like Khalama is flying under the radar here. He comes here off a freshen and his first-up runs have been super and he can reel off some late sectionals. Hieroglyphics is another one that can sit back and enjoy this likely strong tempo. Her fresh record is also very good. Echo Effect settled much better in a recent trial and he may have turned a corner. He has always been a horse that has travelled keen and the only query is whether the 1000m is a tad short. Fickle Folly sat wide without cover last start but has drawn awkwardly again with plenty of speed underneath her.
SPEED MAP: Speed galore here with Just A Bullet, Princefamous, Grand Condor, Fickle Folly and My Favorite all showing plenty of speed. They should go like last week’s pay!
DID YOU KNOW: Dal Cielo has had four trials since his last start and has either missed the start considerably or stayed in the gates in three of them.
BETTING STRATEGY: KHALAMA each-way at $15. Saving on HIEROGLYPHICS.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fickle Folly $6-$5 ($1,100 @ $5.50, $375 @ $5)
The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets on Saturday.
MJ: How competitive is the Warwick Farm meeting looking? What are you most looking forward to?
RT: Getting out to Warwick Farm — I love the track. I’m showing my age now but I saw Kingston Town race there in 1982. I don’t think it’s changed too much except with the development of the Inglis Riverside Complex on the home turn. Isn’t that sensational?
MJ: It looks great and is a big win for Western Sydney. Speaking of a big win, do you expect She Will Reign to do it easily first-up in the Inglis Sprint?
RT: Only bad luck will beat her now that Nature Strip has been scratched. She Will Reign’s so well in it under the set-weight conditions and she is unbeaten fresh.
MJ: Yes, I expect her to win well. A part from her I can’t find another horse that I think is a good thing. Have you found a special for the punters?
RT: I did like Dal Cielo. I know he’s coming off a long break but he has trialled brilliantly and is a 1000m Wawrick Farm winner. A big watch on stablemate Artlee who is coming off an even longer break.
MJ: I think My Favourite is the smoky in that race, but I can’t get over how good Kementari trialled ahead of the Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes. Do you think anything can beat him?
RT: Kementari is all quality but I thought he might be vulnerable first-up over 1200m. I was taken by Brave Song’s successive wins in December and I think he’s a sprinter of considerable ability and I’m leaning his way from Siege Of Quebec in what I think could be the race of the day.
MJ: I think the Breeders Classic could go close to the best of the day. Can Bjorn Baker’s pair of Egyptian Symbol and Bonny O’Reilly quinella the race? I spoke to Jason Collett on Wednesday and he found it hard to spilt them, but he has gone with Egyptian Symbol, who he wants to finish off the 1200m a touch better than he did last start on the Gold Coast.
RT: Agree Matty, Baker one-two. Egyptian Symbol on top. The Lonhro Plate, an intriguing juvenile opener, boasts the return of Satin Slipper and a couple of promising first starters in Oxford Tycoon and Tell Me, but I’m going for a minor upset with Make ‘Em Cry. He impressed me with a strong debut win at the provincials and he’s got the speed to take advantage of the inside gate.
MJ: I’m going for a minor upset in that race, too, and think Osorno has plenty of improvement in him after a slightly unlucky run first-up.
RT: It’s going to be a hot day at Warwick Farm — which westies like us love, so we’ll pop in to the Riverside complex for a beer after the last?
MJ: That was in the back of my mind this whole conversation and I was hoping you’d get me in there, cheers.